Signal · Revenue-quality

Recurring vs one-off

Share of revenue coming from clients billing on a regular cadence vs one-off projects — the strongest predictor of next quarter's cash.

Revenue-quality

What the signal measures

Share of revenue coming from clients billing on a regular cadence vs one-off projects — the strongest predictor of next quarter's cash.

Why it matters

Predictability is a survival metric, not a growth vanity. The share of revenue coming from clients billing on a regular cadence (retainers, subscriptions, monthly project blocks) is the single best predictor of next quarter's cash. A book that is 80% one-off has to be sold from scratch every quarter; a book that is 70% recurring lets you focus sales effort on growth rather than replacement.

How to act on it

If the recurring share is under 40%, the drafted action is a retainerisation pitch to your top occasional clients — "we've worked together on X, Y, Z projects; would a monthly retainer make sense?" The signal identifies the specific clients whose invoice pattern would fit a retainer conversion.

Worked example — fixture consultancy

Meridian is heavily retainer-based (that's why this signal stays quiet on the demo fixture) — the recurring share sits comfortably above 60%. On a lumpier project-shop fixture the same maths surfaces a very different picture, which is what makes this a portable diagnostic across service-business shapes.